While the mainstream media calls Ron Estes’ win in Kansas’ Fourth Congressional District a narrow miss for Republicans, at least one analyst at Real Clear Politics views the special election differently. Real Clear Politic’s Sean Trende calls that a “bit of an over-reaction.”
(The mainstream media is also piling onto the Republicans are losing narrative after yesterday’s election in a red Georgia district. A Democrat received 48 percent of the votes in a crowded race that also featured 11 Republicans. That race will be decided in a June run-off election.)
Estes decisively defeated Democrat James Thompson to replace Mike Pompeo–now CIA director–in Congress. Estes’ 7-point win fell far short of Trump’s numbers in that district a few months ago, but Sean Trende, a political analyst at RCP, writes Estes’ victory margin isn’t a “warning shot,” to the GOP as the New York Times’ Jonathan Martin tweeted.
A WARNING SHOT was fired from Kansas toward every R on the '18 ballot: Dems are energized, few districts are safe >https://t.co/Lld3sQoBcP
— Jonathan Martin (@jmart) April 12, 2017
Instead, Trende says Estes did better than Gov. Brownback did in that district in 2014.
“So if we use the 2014 elections as our baseline, this district actually looks pretty good for Republicans,” Trende writes.
Still, Trende cautioned Republicans.
“If you are really looking for bad news for Republicans, it is probably that, regardless of the comparison, Estes ran behind other Republicans in Sedgwick County,” Trende writes.