New research from Kansas Policy Institute CEO Dave Trabert shows that enrollment declines are partly self-inflicted, especially in some urban and suburban districts.
The Sentinel is a subsidiary of Kansas Policy Institute.
Trabert said that while lower birth rates and population shifts are a factor, the data show there are other influences.
“Lower birth rates and population shifts certainly have an impact, but many of the largest enrollment declines are occurring in counties where population is growing, while a fair number of districts in counties with declining populations are gaining enrollment,” Trabert wrote. “Census population estimates show gains in Johnson, Sedgwick, Wyandotte, Douglas, and Leavenworth counties between 2020 and 2025, and Shawnee County is relatively unchanged. So why are most districts in those counties losing enrollment?”
Eighty-two of the state’s 105 counties lost population during that period, but some of those districts are seeing enrollment increases.
The adjacent table shows how enrollment shifted dramatically since the 2020 COVID pandemic. Districts with 3,000 or more students collectively gained 4% between 2016 and 2020 but have since declined by 6%. Districts with enrollment below 3,000 also went from a gain to a loss, but the shift was smaller (+2% to -3%).
The shift was particularly stark in large urban districts:
- Wichita: flat to a 10% decline
- Olathe: a 6% gain to a 7% decline
- Shawnee Mission: a 2% gain to a 5% decline
- Blue Valley: 4% gain to a 4% decline
- Kansas City: 8% gain to a 9% decline
- Lawrence: 1% gain to a 15% decline
Data for each district is available at KansasOpenGov.org.
Remote ‘learning’ during COVID a factor in enrollment declines
Trabert says there is a noticeable decline in large urban districts that began in 2021.
“Some parents realized their children’s academic capabilities were much lower than their report cards showed. Others were appalled to see critical race theory and DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) indoctrination,” Trabert wrote. “Despite parental pushback and enrollment declines, some districts persisted with their DEI efforts. A video confirmed that USD 500 Kansas City took its gender transitioning practice underground. The U.S. Department of Education found that district, along with Olathe, Shawnee Mission, and Topeka, in violation of federal law; Topeka settled, but the other three are spending taxpayer money on attorneys to fight the USDE findings. They are spending money to fight that (rather than stipulating they won’t do it again) while closing schools and eliminating benefits for paraprofessionals.
Enrollment declines will likely continue in districts that keep prioritizing political viewpoints over improving student outcomes, but other parts of the state have encouraging news.
Smaller districts innovating
Trabert says smaller districts are trying to solve the problems.
“Our Kansas School Board Resource Center recently held its annual conference on improving student outcomes, with more than 150 teachers, administrators, and school board members from 17 school districts attending,” Trabert wrote. “Those districts share several things: they are laser-focused on improving student outcomes, engage with parents, don’t push political viewpoints, and, perhaps most importantly, have the courage to acknowledge that student outcome goals won’t be achieved unless the adults in the system are willing to change.”
KSBRC is also owned by KPI.
