According to personal income data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the states with COVID-related lockdowns imposed by their governors had worse losses in net earnings and private nonfarm wages and salaries in the 2nd Quarter compared to the seven states that weren’t locked down.
Comparing the 2nd Quarter of 2020 to the 1st Quarter, the loss for the states that were locked down was 39% worse (7.9% vs. 5.4%). States locked down lost 69% more private nonfarm wages and salaries comparing the 2nd Quarter this year to the same period last year (5.4% decline vs. 3.2% drop).
Four of the states not locked down – South Dakota (4.8%), Nebraska (5.4%), Arkansas (6%), and Utah (4.3%) – had smaller quarter-to-quarter losses than Kansas, which declined by 6.5%. Missouri’s loss was a little worse, at 7.3%.
In the year-over-year comparison, three states – South Dakota (1.5%), Nebraska (2.4%), and Utah (0.2%) – had smaller losses than Kansas, which lost 3.8% of private nonfarm wages and salaries. Missouri lost 4.8%.
States not locked down had less net earnings decline
The states whose governors didn’t impose lockdowns also had better net earnings changes. BEA defines net earnings by place of work as the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income, minus contributions for government social insurance plus an adjustment to convert earnings by place of work to a place-of-residence basis.
Comparing the 2nd Quarter of 2020 to the 1st Quarter, the loss for the states that were locked down was 22% worse (7.8% vs. 6.4%). The net earnings loss was 108% greater for the lockdown states, comparing the 2nd Quarter this year to the same period last year (5.2% decline vs. 2.5% drop).
Five of the states not locked down – North Dakota (6.4%), South Dakota (5.8%), Nebraska (6.6%), Wyoming (6.5%), and Utah (3.7%) – had smaller quarter-to-quarter losses than Kansas, which declined by 7.5%. Missouri’s loss was a little less, at 6.7%.
In the year-over-year comparison, five states – North Dakota (2.2%), South Dakota (0.5%), Nebraska (1.9%), Iowa (3.9%), and Utah (0.5%) – had smaller losses than Kansas, which lost 4.3% of private nonfarm wages and salaries. Missouri lost 3.8%.
The states not locked down by their governors early on also had better COVID outcomes, and that’s still true today, according to data from Worldomter.
The states locked own by their governors have more than twice the number of deaths per million of population (629 vs. 287) and the mortality rate (deaths divided by cases) is nearly three times greater (3% vs 1.2%).
Cases per million are 9% higher in the states not locked down (23,069 vs. 21,074).